You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet

Does the Technological Determinism vs. Social Shaping

debate accurately describe the relationship between

Technology and Society?

Before I answer this question let me put Technologial

Determinism theory into perspective. As you know one of the

earliest Technological Determinist was Karl Marx.

Let me quote one of the greatest leaders of 20th century on

this matter “What I am describing now is a plan and a hope

for the long term -- the march of freedom and democracy

which will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history

as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and

muzzle the self-expression of the people.” - President

Ronald Reagan in speech to members of the British

Parliament (1982).

I believe above quote answers any questions about

legitimacy of any ideas proposed by Karl Marx. As a side

note you can ask yourself why Marx’s writings (not mention

ideas) are still in circulation while one single book wrote

by another German socialist is widely forbidden across the

continent. Yes, that’s true. It’s Europe in 21 century

not middle ages but there are still books you can’t

publish or buy.

But that leaves main question unanswered… Really?

This question implicates that any debate of Technological

Determinism vs Social Shaping would more or less accurately

describe relationship between technology and society.

What if this is false?

Instead of trying to predict and describe any relation (if

there is any) I would focus on main driving force of

innovation. Nobel Prize-winning economist

Milton Friedman said:

“There is no alternative way so far discovered of

improving the lot of ordinary people that can hold a candle

to the productive activities that are unleashed by the free

enterprise system”.

From this perspective technology would be an outcome of

operation of free market not detached standalone entity.

Name the first technology that comes to your mind.

I can bet thousands of people cooperated to make it work.

People who don’t speak the same language, people who practice different

religion, people who would hate each another if they met.

What brought them together? What made them to cooperate?

Is it greed and self interest?

When reading academic papers about society & technology

they resemble prediction for 50’s and 60’s. It has at

least one thing in common.

Both were very trendy at the time when published and both

became quickly outdate within the decades. Do you remember

those cartoons how people imagined living in the year 2000?

Robots all around, nuclear powered planes… you name it.

Are futurist the only people who predict future wrong?

Take a look at the moguls within industry.

Back in the early 80’s, Ken Olsen, then CEO of Digital

Equipment Corp. (DEC – one of the biggest computer

manufacturers at the time), gave an interview about future

of computers : ”There is no reason for any individual to

have a computer in his home.”
Can we blame sociologist for getting their predictions
wrong if people within industry can't see what’s going to
happen in the next 5 years?
At least one thing is certain… You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet