Tuesday, February 24, 2009

You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet


Does the Technological Determinism vs. Social Shaping
debate accurately describe the relationship between
Technology and Society?

Before I answer this question let me put Technologial
Determinism theory into perspective. As you know one of the
earliest Technological Determinist was Karl Marx.

Let me quote one of the greatest leaders of 20th century on
this matter “What I am describing now is a plan and a hope
for the long term -- the march of freedom and democracy
which will leave Marxism-Leninism on the ash-heap of history
as it has left other tyrannies which stifle the freedom and
muzzle the self-expression of the people.” - President
Ronald Reagan in speech to members of the British
Parliament (1982).

I believe above quote answers any questions about
legitimacy of any ideas proposed by Karl Marx. As a side
note you can ask yourself why Marx’s writings (not mention
ideas) are still in circulation while one single book wrote
by another German socialist is widely forbidden across the
continent. Yes, that’s true. It’s Europe in 21 century
not middle ages but there are still books you can’t
publish or buy.

But that leaves main question unanswered… Really?
This question implicates that any debate of Technological
Determinism vs Social Shaping would more or less accurately
describe relationship between technology and society.
What if this is false?
Instead of trying to predict and describe any relation (if
there is any) I would focus on main driving force of
innovation. Nobel Prize-winning economist
Milton Friedman said:
There is no alternative way so far discovered of
improving the lot of ordinary people that can hold a candle
to the productive activities that are unleashed by the free
enterprise system”.

From this perspective technology would be an outcome of
operation of free market not detached standalone entity.
Name the first technology that comes to your mind.
I can bet thousands of people cooperated to make it work.
People who don’t speak the same language, people who practice different
religion, people who would hate each another if they met.
What brought them together? What made them to cooperate?
Is it greed and self interest?

When reading academic papers about society & technology
they resemble prediction for 50’s and 60’s. It has at
least one thing in common.
Both were very trendy at the time when published and both
became quickly outdate within the decades. Do you remember
those cartoons how people imagined living in the year 2000?
Robots all around, nuclear powered planes… you name it.

Are futurist the only people who predict future wrong?
Take a look at the moguls within industry.
Back in the early 80’s, Ken Olsen, then CEO of Digital
Equipment Corp. (DEC – one of the biggest computer
manufacturers at the time), gave an interview about future
of computers : ”There is no reason for any individual to
have a computer in his home.
Can we blame sociologist for getting their predictions
wrong if people within industry can't see what’s going to
happen in the next 5 years?
At least one thing is certain… You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet